The U.S. has realized that Syria has become another Vietnam, and last week the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Geneva to find a solution. But it is de javu of 1973 again, with the U.S. want an honorable way out of Syria- like with Kissinger in 1973, and Lavrov certain of a Russian eventual win standing firm that Bashar Assad stays in power. BBC reported on August 27, 2016, that after the Kerry – Lavrov meeting, John Kerry said: “We have achieved clarity on the path forward,” and Lavrov said: “We have lowered the level of mutual distrust!” But those statements were diplomatic protocol lingo. The core of their statements in plain English was: “We don’t agree on anything, and we are hopelessly deadlocked on all issues!” And since all Middle East civilizations were all built around the biblical 10 Commandments, the U.S. misadventure in Syria deserves its own, and here they are:
1. Anti-American sentiment (hatred by Muslims) runs from 98.5% in Pakistan to about 90% in the Arab world. The rise and the global appeal of the Islamic State has proved that the U.S. and Muslims don’t mix together, as water and oil don’t. And, yes, it is all about the U.S. incessant demand for oil, and domination of oil controlling brutal regimes that creates all tragedies in Middle East – including the sprouting of the Islamic State.
2. The U.S. claim that it wants democracy in Syria is not different than the U.S. claim that it wanted democracy in Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific after WWII, but then established bloody dictators that killed millions of indigenous people who fought colonial regimes. U.S. bloody dictators succeeded only where corrupt Generals -like Fatah al-Sissi in Egypt, or Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire overthrew legitimate governments for $ U.S. millions – and $ billion in free armaments.
3. U.S. efforts to overthrow anti-U.S. governments where the country’s army could not be corrupted failed. Here is a brief: 1)The U.S. mercenary armies of General Kolchak and Admiral Denikin in Russia to oust the Bolsheviks. 2) The Karen mercenaries in Burma to oust a pro-Chinese regime. 3) The Nicaraguan “Contras” to oust the elected Sandinista government. 4) The CIA mercenaries in the “Bay of Pigs” invasion to oust Fidel Castro in Cuba. 5. The CIA Generals in Venezuela, to outs Hugo Chavez -rounded up and arrested by Chavez’s loyal tank division commander, General Morales. 6. U.S. Cambodian mercenary, General Lon Nol, ousted by the Kmer Rouge. 7) Unita’s U.S. mercenary, Jonas Savimbi in Angola failed to overthrow the pro-Soviet elected president Jose Eduardo Dos Santos. All Saudi Arabia efforts to bribe Bashar Assad’s Generals failed, and the U.S-Saudi Arabia mercenary mission in Syria is, therefore, destined for the U.S. scrap-heap of similar past U.S. mercenary failures.
4. The U.S. trained and armed the Iraqi army, and provided it with U.S. air power cover, but it was proven worthless against the Islamic State. Similarly, U.S. trained and armed Syrian mercenaries are similarly ineffective in Syria, but they are in the fight for money, and they have no incentive to win. If they win, they would be send home and become unemployed. They had better pretend they are fighting, and keep stuffing their pockets with Saudi and U.S. $$$$. Past reports on the media have verified that many leave when they have enough money – rather than risk death if they stay longer.
5. Enter the Iran’s Syria involvement. The Iran trained and armed “Iraq Popular Mobilization Forces” have performed admirably in Iraq, and Iran now has created, and is training and arming a Syria “Popular Mobilization Force!” How good will they be? As good as Iraq’s “Popular Mobilization Forces” that have defeated the Islamic State in West Iraq, and as good as Hezbollah (Lebanon’s famous Shiite militia) that defeated the Israeli army who invaded Lebanon in 2006, and forced it to scatter back into Israel! Would the opportunists U.S. mercenaries defeat the Syrian Army, the Syrian Popular Mobilization Forces and Hezbollah units, all backed by Soviet air power in support of Assad? It won’t happen, but the U.S. is too embarrassed to throw-in-the towel now. The late U.S. president Lyndon Jonson was saddled with the Vietnam War defeat in history – even though he didn’t start it. Obama will keep the Syrian mission going for a few months more, and then let it drop in either Clinton’s or Trump’s lap! Thus it will become a blot in their presidential history – not on his own!
6. The U.S. wanted to overthrow Bashar Assad, and then install a U.S. puppet dictator like Egypt’s Fatah al-Sissi in Damascus, who then will kick the Russians out, and cut off relations with Iran and Hezbollah. It won’t happen because Russia and Iran won’t allow it. And they can stand their ground because Russia today is not the shambles Russia of Boris Yeltsin who watched helplessly as the U.S. bombed its brethren Yugoslavia. And Iran has its own war industry now, a formidable army, plus the formidable -according to U.S. Generals- S-400 anti-aircraft batteries, and an army second-to-none in Middle East. The only thing that keeps the Syrian war going is: a) The persistence -and $ billions of funding by Saudi Arabia- to oust Assad, and b) The naiveté of Baraq Obama!
7. At first the U.S. built a force of about 5.000 mercenaries in Syria, but 2 years later they had all absconded with their salaries and guns to fights against the U.S. U.S. General Austin admitted it in testimony to the U.S. Congress that the U.S. had only 4-5 rebels left by 2014. Now the U.S. claim that it has again about 5.000 anti-Assad rebels. But that has been achieved with Saudi Arabia paying them fat salaries, and the U.S. promises to asylum in the U.S. – if the mission fail! They are, therefore, gold-diggers, and opportunists, very much like the infamous French Legion. They won’t be a match to Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah firepower and training.
8. Mercenaries have never wan any war because they are in for the riches and the spoils. Wars have always been won by the bravery of fighters who fight for their honor, and the protection of their country. The Syrian Arab Spring at first wanted a more open democratic society, but having seen what happened to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Bahrain with U.S./Saudi Arabia invasions and machinations, they would rather stay with Assad than with a more brutal U.S./Saudi Arabia puppet dictator.
9. Fact of Matter: There are secret trials -not open to reporters or the public as they are in democracies- and beheadings of opponents by the dozen year around in Saudi Arabia – the aspiring warlord of a post-Assad ruler of Sunnis. There are no such brutality in North Korea, but the U.S. – and its meek allies- deem North Korea as an outcast state. Granted that Assad is a hereditary leader like North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Would the Syrians trade Assad who send opponents to prison – like Kim Jong Un, or choose a Saudi Arabia controlled puppet dictator that would run Syrian guillotines against any opponent year around? Or would they like a U.S. predator dictator dressed in a democratic garb- like Egypt’s Fatah al-Sissi? I bet that by now the Syrians have concluded that the adage “The Devil you know is better than the Devil you don’t know” is the widest option!
10. Aristotle said that there are two ways to govern: 1) Govern for the interest of the governor – read the king, the Sultan or the dictator. 2) Govern for the interests of the governed -read: the people or the voters! The U.S. has no Arab democratic ally in Middle East that governs for “the interest of the governed!” That was why the late Israeli Prime Minister Monahem Begin described them as: “The 3.000 princess and princesses that drink the blood (the oil wealth) of the Arab people!” They govern brutally for themselves, and submit to U.S. subservience for military protection! In the Arab brutality-o-meter in Middle East, the U.S. allies are at the top, while Assad is benevolent by comparison!
The Epilogue: The U.S. hypocritical policy in Middle East can be summoned to answer this adage: “If your house (your Arab alliance) is full of rats, you don’t create a rat-eradication force to eliminate a single rat in your unfriendly neighbor’s home. You clean up your house first!
Nikos Retsos, retired professor
